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The Extend-and-Pretend Era Is Over: Office Loan Delinquencies Shatter Records as the Reckoning Arrives

The Extend-and-Pretend Era Is Over

Some analysts believe 2026 will mark peak delinquency for the office sector, with vacancies finally beginning to stabilize after five consecutive years of expansion and a clear bifurcation emerging between newer trophy product and functionally obsolete stock. Office conversions to residential — particularly in New York City — are beginning to absorb some of the distressed inventory, and servicers have grown considerably more sophisticated at executing loan modifications that reduce loss severities compared to outright foreclosure. The underwriting discipline of post-2008 CMBS also provides a structural buffer absent during the last crisis.

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The New Rules of the Game

How 2026 Underwriting Standards Are Reshaping Commercial Real Estate Refinancing The commercial real estate refinancing landscape is undergoing a fundamental

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Commercial Real Estate in Flux

What is clear is that the commercial real estate landscape will continue rewarding those who can distinguish between assets positioned for the future and those trapped in secular decline.

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The $930B Ticking Clock How Maturing Debt Could Reshape Commercial Real Estate in 2026

The $930B Ticking Clock

While the maturity wall presents undeniable challenges for existing owners, it simultaneously creates opportunities for well-capitalized investors. Distressed debt funds and opportunistic equity investors are positioning substantial capital to acquire both troubled loans and the underlying properties as situations resolve.

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