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Trade Wars Squeeze CRE Financing: Lenders Expand Risk Premiums as Global Tensions Escalate

Trade Wars Squeeze CRE Financing:

Commercial real estate lenders are showing increasing caution as global trade tensions intensify, resulting in widening credit spreads across all major property sectors. This shift mirrors patterns seen during previous economic disruptions and signals potential challenges ahead for CRE financing.

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Commercial Real Estate Market Faces Increasing Delinquency Rates

The commercial real estate sector encountered growing pressures in the fourth quarter of 2024, with mortgage delinquency rates climbing from previous quarter figures. This development comes at a critical juncture as commercial loans valued at nearly $1 trillion approach maturity this year, according to recent data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).

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How Troubled CRE Debt Is Reshaping Banking’s Future

The commercial real estate market stands at a critical crossroads as troubled debt restructuring surged to $18 billion in Q4 2024, tripling from just $6 billion in Q2 2023. This dramatic increase signals deeper structural challenges within the CRE sector that could have lasting implications for the U.S. banking system.

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Six Bright Spots Illuminating Commercial Real Estate in 2025

The commercial real estate landscape is evolving rapidly in 2025, with several emerging trends creating exciting opportunities for investors, developers, and industry professionals. Despite ongoing capital environment challenges, green shoots are appearing across multiple sectors, signaling a period of innovation and adaptation that savvy market participants can leverage for growth.

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